Special Reporting: Present day 2022 vs. 2008

Happy October! We hope our monthly newsletter finds you well and in your best spirits this fall. Let’s dive into this month’s reporting.

As seen since spring 2022, market activity has been gradually declining. This month we’re presenting a special report that provides insight into continuing trends between the present day and 2008. The chart below is in the macroeconomic indicators report. Staggering levels of unaffordable mortgage debt were a huge factor in the 2008 crash, but right now, mortgage debt as a percentage of disposable income is close to an all-time low. A tsunami of foreclosures and short sales – behind the home price crash in 2008-2011 – is not imminent now in 2022:

The Silicon Valley market holds to the belief that location and price are still everything. High-price points homes that are “A+/A” (let us know if you’d like to see how properties are typically “graded”) in desirable areas will feel the least of any market correction. They literally represent only 2-3% of all of our available inventory.

For a deeper dive into the subprime bubble and crash in 2008, mortgage debt, and appreciation rates over the years, continue reading or check out Bay Area Market Trends and the Macroeconomic Indicators Report.

As always, if you have any questions about this month’s special reporting, or buying or selling a home, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us. Our team at Silicon Valley and Beyond often helps our clients plan 2+ years out. Please do not ever think that contacting us is too early in the process. We handle everything—including planning moves!

We’d love to hear from you! Let us know if you’d like to chat about what we are seeing in the current marketplace. Book a 15-minute call with Dawn here.

Here’s to creating a better future,

Dawn Thomas
Broker Associate – Team Leader
Dawn is certified from the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School

Brian Brunetti
Realtor – Senior Sales Associate

Charles “Chuck” Holcomb
Realtor – Sales Associate

The Dawn Thomas Team guides nice people through real estate matters in Silicon Valley and beach communities of Santa Cruz County. Our mission is to inspire and create the most remarkable real estate experience — one person, one family, one home, one neighborhood at a time. Contact us today and we can assist you in selling or buying your home.

951 Blair Court, Palo Alto
Rare, large beautifully remodeled Eichler home with flexible floor plan in Triple El. Live in one portion of this large home and rent out the other—2 kitchens, 3 entrances, 2 mailing addresses
Offered at $3,970,000
650-701-7822 – Dawn or
831-239-9890 – Brian

3765 Farm Hill Blvd., Redwood City
Large, remodeled Farm Hill Estates home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 1/2 bathrooms, swimming pool and a private entrance to Stulsaft Park
Offered at $3,299,000 (+$50K Credit towards closing costs & points buy-down)
650-701-7822 – Dawn or
408-367-0322 – Chuck
Open House Sun 1-4 pm

16100 Greenridge Terrace, Los Gatos
Build your dream home!
Approximately 7.76 acres
Offered at $3,950,000
650-701-7822 – Dawn
408-367-0322 – Chuck 
831-239-9890 – Brian

1473 Revere Avenue, San Jose
Great Cambrian
neighborhood – fresh paint, updated +ready to move in!
Offered at $1,399,000
650-701-7822 – Dawn
408-367-0322 – Chuck

40461 Ditmus Court, Fremont
Updated Eichler on a quiet cul-de-sac close to Lake Elizabeth
Offered at $1,100,000

831-239-9890 – Brian

2960 Sanor Place #104, Santa Clara
831-239-9890 – Brian

3160 Vistamont Drive, San Jose

12120 Viewoak Drive, Saratoga (multiple offers)
760 University Avenue, Palo Alto

La Terra Development
0 Santella Drive, Los Gatos
(above The Highlands off of
Santella Court)
Modern, Luxury Development
7 multi-acreage lots with infrastructure and sweeping views of Silicon Valley! Entire 28+ acre development
Offered at $17,500,000 including completed roads, curbs and gutters and utilities
Please reach out to us for more information and pricing at VIP@SiliconValleyandBeyond.com
650-701-7822 – Dawn
408-367-0322 – Chuck
831-239-9890 – Brian

60+ acres in the Soquel Mountains
0 Old San Jose Road, Soquel
10 minutes from town
3 potential building pads on sight
Offered at $1,198,000
831-239-9890 – Brian

Present Day and 2008

2022 is not like 2008.

Market activity has gradually declined and continued cooling since spring 2022. This, however, is not like the 2008 subprime crisis. The 2008 crash resulted from an extreme event brought about by a massive failure of ethics, underwriting standards, and risk management in the loan, banking, investment, and rating industries. Millions became homeowners and were talked into home loans they could not afford.

What homeowners were struggling to afford, mortgage debt, has come close to an all-time low present day. Mortgage debt as a percentage of disposable income surpassed 7% in 2008, nearly double the percentage of disposable income in 2022! Appreciation rates are another indicator that 2022 is not like 2008. As market activity cools, appreciation rates typically level or flatten. In 2008, appreciation rates plunged to -23%, with homeowners’ mortgages remaining relatively high.

For more details on Bay Area Market Trends, check out the report linked below.

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