Atherton Market Conditions October 2015
- Autumn slowdown
- Demand is spotty
- Price indicators fall
- Median price below year ago for third straight month
- Inventory still very low
Demand in Atherton was somewhat spotty in October. As always, demand was driven by location but also by price (lower priced homes saw more) and in some cases by attractive individual homes. Inventory is still very low here but pending sales were surprisingly strong. Homes are still selling for more than their asking price, on average, but there are fewer multiple offers and a more deliberate pace. The market may be plateauing (at least in the near term) after a very strong couple of years.
October’s median sales price was $4,730,000, which was the lowest in a year. October’s median price was $1.17 million below September’s median and $57,500 below that of a year ago. That was the third straight month the median sales price was below the price from a year earlier. It has been at least a few years since we had that kind of a streak. The price per square foot fell from $1,452 in September to $1,388 in October. That was still 25% or $283 higher than in October 2014. The sales price to list price ratio also dipped in October, from 103.7% in September to 102.9% in October. The ratio was 100.5% in October 2014.
Closed sales fell from 10 in September to seven in October. There were eight closed sales a year ago. The average for 2015 so far is seven.
24 properties were actively listed at the end of October, down from 30 at the end of September and the fewest since April. 36 homes were on the market a year ago. Pending sales fell by one unit to nine in October, compared to eight in October 2014. That left a 2.7 month supply on the market at the end of October, down from 3.0 months at the end of September and 4.5 months a year ago. Most of that supply is in the upper end (homes priced over $10 million), while the inventory of lower priced homes remained very tight.
October’s sales were on the market an average of 18 days. That was surprising since demand has softened a bit. It just shows that some homes (priced right) will still sell quickly in this market. October’s 18 days compares to September’s 44 and October 2014’s 47 days.
Analysis by Price Range
As mentioned earlier, the market for lower priced homes is very tight. Only one home priced under $3 million was on the market at the end of October, down from six at the end of September. That was 4% of Atherton’s total inventory. Pending sales increased from one in September to three in October, representing a third of all pending sales. Supply slipped form six months at the end of September to 0.33 months at the end of October.
Pending sales of homes priced from $3 million to $4,999,999 fell from five in September to two in October. Inventory was unchanged at four units. That increased supply relative to sales from 0.8 months at the end of September to 2.0 months at the end of October. This price range made up 17% of inventory and 22% of pending sales.
With five homes for sale, there was no change in the inventory of homes priced from $5 million to $9,999,999. Pending sales slipped from three in September to one in October, which left a five month supply on the market. Homes in this segment accounted for 21% of total inventory and 11% of pending sales.
With 58% of Atherton’s total inventory, homes priced at $10 million-plus make up the bulk of available homes. 14 proper ties were on the market at the end of October, representing a 4.7 month supply. 15 homes were actively listed at the end of September. Pending sales increased from one in September to three in October. That was s third of all sales.
