Atherton Market Conditions November 2015

  • Still a sellers’ market
  • Inventory low but steady
  • Only three closed sales
  • Pending sales down also

It’s kind of an interesting time for real estate. Even though the winter lull is here, demand remains strong, if not quite as robust as it has been most of the year. The double digit year-over-year price increases we have experienced the past few years may be abating. While prices will likely continue to increase they will probably do so less rapidly. As the Fed moves toward interest rate increases it is causing some uncertainty amongst buyers but does not appear to be having a large impact. Overall, it remains a seller’s market, albeit with less consistent demand and more cautious buyers.

It’s difficult to draw any conclusions on pricing with only three closed sales in Atherton in November. The homes that sold did so for less than the average list price but at a higher price per square foot than the past few months. Atherton’s inventory held steady, right in the range it has been in pretty much all year. That’s a little surprising, given that most of the surrounding communities saw inventory drop sharply.

The median sales price for the three closed sales in November was $6,498,000, more than $2 million over October’s median. The price per square foot increased $143, from $1,388 in October to $1,531 in November. On average, the homes sold for 96% of their list price, the first time since May the ratio was below 100%. With only three sales, I can’t read much into this data. We’ll have to see how the next few months go to see if there are any trends here.

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Closed sales fell from seven in October to three in November. That was the fewest sales since February. Ten sales closed a year ago.

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Inventory was little changed here; 28 homes at the end of November versus 27 at the end of October and 24 a year earlier. Pending sales (like closed sales) fell from seven in October to three in November. Ten sales went to contract in November 2014. The drop in sales and steady inventory resulted in a 9.3 month supply at the end of November relative to pending sales, up from 3.9 months at the end of October and 2.4 months a year ago. The inventory of homes in the lower end of the market remained very tight, while the pending sales were of higher priced homes (over $5 million).

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November’s closed sales were on the market an average of 64 days, compared to 18 days for October’s sales and 32 days a year ago.

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Analysis by Price Range

Only one home priced below $3 million was actively listed at the end of November, down from two at the end of October. No sales went pending during the month, compared to three in October. Less than 4% of Atherton’s inventory was in this segment.

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There were also no pending sales in the $3 million to $4,999,999 price range. Two sales went to contact in October. Seven homes were actively listed, accounting for 25% of the city’s inventory.

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With two pending sales in November, the $ 5 million to $9,999,999 segment made up 67% of the sales here. No sales went pending during October. Inventory slipped from six at the end of October to four at the end of November. There was a two month supply at the end of November.   14% of invetoyr was in this price range.

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The $10 million-plus segment continued to account for the bulk of inventory – 57%. 16 homes were actively listed at the end of November, one more than at the end of October. One sale went to contract during November, accounting for a third of all pending sales.

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