Atherton real estate

Atherton Market Conditions November 2014

  • Inventory at its lowest level in 10 years
  • Pending sales lowest in two years
  • Median sales price lowest since July
  • Other price indicators rise again

The Atherton real estate market slowed precipitously in November, with both inventory and pending sales posting lows. Inventory has not been this low in ten years and the last time pending sales were this low was December 2012. Price indicators were mixed in November, with the median sales price falling but the average price per square foot and the sales price to list price ratio increasing.

November’s median sales price was $4,500,000, which was $287,500 or 6% below October’s $4,787,500. On the other hand, it was 130% or about $2.5 million higher than a year ago ($1,956,000). Other indicators of price moved higher in November. The average price per square foot increased 9% of $103, from $1,105 in October to $1,208. That was 38% or $335 higher than November 2013’s $873. The sales price to list price ratio was 105.5% in November, up from 100.5% in October and 101.7% a year ago.

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Nine sales closed in November, up one from eight in October and two more than closed in November 2013. Closed sales have been in single digits for the past six months.

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I had to go back to December 2004 to find less inventory than November’s 15 homes (there were 14 in December 2004). November had five fewer actively listed properties than October and less than half the 33 that were on the market a year ago. Pending sales matched their two year low, set in September of five homes. That was down from 11 in October and six a year ago. Since sales dropped faster than inventory, month-end November had a 3.0 month supply of inventory relative to pending sales, compared to 1.8 months at the end of October.

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Properties were listed for an average of 34 days in November, down 13 days from 47 in October. One year ago, homes were on the market an average of 87 days.

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Analysis by Price Range
For the second month in a row, there were no properties priced below $3 million actively listed at the end of November. A year ago, there were four. No sales went to contract in this segment either, which was the first time that was the case in over two years.

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Two homes priced from $3 million to $4,999,999 were on the market at the end of November, half of October’s four. There were also four active listing a year ago. Pending sales were cut from three in October to two in November, the same number as a year earlier. Inventory relative to pending sales was cut from 1.3 months at the end of October to 1.0 month at the end of November. 13% of Atherton’s inventory and 40% of its pending sales were in this price range.

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In the $5 million to $9,999,999 price range, inventory was cut from six at the end of October to four at the end of November, which was less than a third of what was available a year ago (13). One sale went to contract, down from four in October but more than November 2013’s zero. A 4.0 month supply was on the market at the end of November, up from 1.5 months at the end of October. This segment accounted for 27% of Atherton’s inventory and 20% of its pending sales.

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Nine homes priced at $10 million-plus were activly listed at the end of November, 60% of Atheron’s total inventory. 10 properties were activly listed at the end of October and 12 a year ago. Two sales went to contract in November, compared to zero in October, as well a year earlier. November’s two sales were 40% of Atherton’s total. A 4.5 month supply was on the market at the end of November.

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