Atherton Market Conditions August 2015

  • Price indicators decline
  • Even with decline, pricing remains strong
  • Inventory still very low
  • Time on market increases

While price indicators fell in Atherton in August, demand remained strong and inventory low. With low sales volume, it could be that the decline in the price indicators was just a statistical anomaly or it could indicate that the market has softened a little. It took longer for homes to sell as well. We’ll watch and see what happens in the coming months.

August’s median sales price was $4,850,000, a 16% decline from July’s $5,775,000 and a 1% drop from August 2014’s $4.9 million. Sales prices were, on average, 102% of the list price in August, down from 104% in July and 105% a year ago. The price per square foot slid 23% to $1,309. Not to worry, though, as July’s price spiked 26%, so we ended up pretty much back to where we were in May and June.


The number of closed sales remained somewhat low in August at seven , although increased by one from both July and a year ago.


Note that in each of the past several months, pending sales and inventory numbers have been restated (pending sales downward and inventory upward) the following month, so we need to take caution with the following data. As currently listed, both inventory and pending sales were unchanged from July at 25 and six, respectively. That is a 4.2 month supply, relative to pending sales. Both inventory and sales have been fairly flat for the past several months, with sales showing a bit more volatility than inventory.


At 49 days, August’s sales were on the market longer than any month since May’s 105 day average. June and July saw homes sell in less than 20 days, on average. One year ago, homes sold in an average of 27 days.


Analysis by Price Range

There was no change in the inventory of homes priced below $3 million in August. Three such homes were on the market, representing a three month supply. One sale went to contract in August, the same as in July. This segment accounted for 12% of Atherton’s inventory at the end of August and 17% of the sales that went pending during the month.


Four homes priced from $3 million to $4.999 million were actively listed at the end of August, two less than at the end of July. Pending sales increased by two, from one during July to three during August. That resulted in there being a 1.3 month supply at the end of August, down from 6.0 months at the end of July. 50% of Atherton’s pending sales and 16% of its inventory were in this price range.


Only one sale went pending in the $5 million to $9,999,999 price range in August, down from three in July. Inventory increased by two units, from four at the end of July to six at the end of August. That meant a 6.0 month supply at the end of August, compared to 1.3 months at the end of July. This price range made up 24% of the city’s inventory and 17% of pending sales.


The $10 million-plus segment continues to account for the largest share of inventory at 48%, while only having 17% of sales. There was no change in inventory or pending sales from July. 12 homes were actively listed at the end of August, while only one sale went to contract. That meant there was a 12 month supply of these homes.